The liquor industry as a whole is in a downturn. How to burn Zhang Deqin’s "three fires"?
"Hard currency" Maotai is no longer fragrant?
Since the beginning of this year, the price of Maotai has continued to drop, and even the hottest Feitian Maotai has fallen below 2,500 yuan: according to the latest wholesale data of today’s wine price on May 21, the wholesale price of bulk Feitian Maotai in 2024 was 2,495 yuan, and the original box was 2,760 yuan; The price of Bairong wine is 2,500 yuan and 2,760 yuan respectively.
Jiu Zhouzhi visited the Beijing market. In some dealer channels, the lowest price of this product can reach about 2550 yuan, which is basically the same as the batch price.
The price of Maotai fluctuated greatly, and some scalpers shouted "I can’t hold it". Some scalpers have stopped collecting the zodiac Maotai, or chose to leave temporarily. Maotai’s crazy "national ox" era seems to be gone forever.
Jiu Zhouzhi consulted Kweichow Moutai on this phenomenon as an investor. The official said that the production, operation and marketing were normal. What the company can do is to do a good job in ecology and sales, and the company’s internal governance is good.
The scalper has lost weight, and the dealer is anxious.
"Flying Maotai is now a price a day, and I dare not overcharge it, for fear that the price will not rise in the future." Mr. Zeng, a scalper who has been engaged in Moutai business, told Jiu Zhouzhi.
The owner of a national wine collection in Changping, Beijing, said that because there is no flying quota, they have no price advantage. In order to ensure the quantity and authenticity of the supply, in addition to daily wine collection, they also set up a "Mao Mao Group" and organized group friends to make appointments on platforms such as "Huluwa". "However, it is not a small cost to advance the whole process and return the commission. Now the transaction price has fallen, which has greatly affected the profit, and it is very difficult to get out."
In fact, it’s not just the scalpers who feel uncomfortable. A Kweichow Moutai dealer in Chaoyang District also said that the overall market of Maotai is general now, and most of the high-profit products are sold directly. "Although we also have quotas, we have to bundle the goods with low-profit products, which is not big."
In addition, in addition to the price decline of Feitian Maotai, Maotai vintage wine, Zodiac wine and series wine have also declined to varying degrees, and the liquidity in the liquor circle is not as good as in previous years.
For example, according to many dealers and scalpers, the price of Zodiac wine, which has been "fried", continues to fall, among which Festuca arundinacea and Mafao have the highest prices because of their low output. "The prices of the two are around 30,000 and 20,000 respectively", and the prices of other Zodiac wines as a whole show a gradual downward trend.
Among them, rabbit hair is the cheapest Maotai Zodiac wine. At the retail end, the recycling price given by dealers and scalpers is 2,600-2,800 yuan, while the selling price is around 3,000 yuan. Many scalpers said that the profit of fried zodiac wine may not be as good as that of Pumao.
Before the explosion of I Maotai, 100ml flying Maotai and Maotai 1935 had already encountered "Waterloo" in the terminal market. Today’s wine price shows that the wholesale price of the former is basically maintained in 380 yuan -400 yuan, while the wholesale price of the latter is 1030 yuan. In retail terminal stores, the price inversion of Maotai 1935 is more serious, with the price range of 900-1000 yuan.
At the same time, from May 19, Maotai 1935 has changed from reservation subscription to cloud purchase, which can be purchased directly; The delivery mode of 100ml Feitian Maotai also started nationwide delivery. The future trend of these two products has been questioned by the industry.
Jiu Zhouzhi found that scalpers with small business volume said that they would suspend the acquisition of Maotai Zodiac wine, and some scalpers even bluntly said that they would suspend the acquisition of all products. On some platforms that share the price of Moutai, fans will even be specially reminded that Maotai 1935, fine Maotai and other products are lower than the snap price, and many places do not accept them. Please proceed with caution.
Why did this happen?
Maotai, which is high above, also has a day when it can’t move?
The most fundamental reason is that the relationship between supply and demand has changed. On the other side of high social inventory, there is a decrease in social demand and consumption power.
Brewmaster Zhang, a liquor appraiser, told Zhou Zhi that on the one hand, the current business consumption scenarios are decreasing, and the demand for superposition is decreasing, but Maotai is still increasing its production capacity; On the other hand, the reservoir of Maotai is also getting smaller. Many scalpers are not dealers and have no price advantage. In the past two years, Maotai has not risen but fallen, and they dare not hoard a lot of goods.
"The price fluctuation of Maotai is divided into external factors and internal factors. The external factors are nothing more than economic fluctuation, policy influence, investment environment and even liquor inventory. For example, when the channel inventory is high, some distributors will choose to sell to alleviate the cash flow tension, thus causing the price fluctuation of Maotai," added Ouyang Qianli, a researcher in the wine industry. "The internal factors are more supply and demand, channel changes, product mix and even management changes. With the continuous improvement of Maotai’s production capacity and the increase of direct sales ratio, etc.
Secondly, the price of Maotai new wine and old wine is getting closer and closer, which also means that the profit space through hoarding wine is shrinking, thus affecting the confidence of wine merchants.
Mr. Hu, a senior wine collector, told Zhou Zhi that scarcity is one of the important factors affecting the terminal market price of old wine. In recent years, the continuous expansion of Kweichow Moutai will weaken the scarcity of sub-new wine to a certain extent. When the sub-new wine gradually becomes old wine, the scarcity is not strong due to the large output, which will directly affect the future market transaction price.
The following set of data also supports Mr. Hu’s view that the price of sub-new wine products is the same as the current transaction price of the 53-degree flying Maotai terminal market in 2024. According to the latest data of wine board, the terminal transaction price of Feitian Maotai (bulk bottle) products in 2017-2024 is about 2880 yuan, 2800 yuan, 2760 yuan, 2690 yuan, 2640 yuan, 2600 yuan, 2525 yuan and 2520 yuan respectively.
In his view, "Moreover, wine merchants have different channels to get goods and different costs. When Moutai fell, some scalpers/dealers chose to throw goods, which led to a chain reaction in the market."
Thirdly, from the perspective of brand value, in order to promote the rejuvenation of Maotai brand, Maotai ice cream, sauce-flavored latte and other products have been launched successively, which has lowered the tonality of Maotai in the eyes of some scalpers, which is not conducive to maintaining the price of Maotai.
For the frequent cross-border of Maotai, there are two main reasons for market dissatisfaction. First, the cross-border joint name of Maotai can be ignored compared with its revenue of 100 billion yuan. Second, Maotai is essentially a high-end consumer product similar to luxury goods. Cross-border consumer goods lower the consumption threshold of users, and there is a risk of brand overdraft.
Some cattle stopped buying Zodiac wine, which was not only related to the output, but also an important reason why some cattle dared not touch it.
According to many dealers and scalpers, Maotai Zodiac Wine is the most easily "topped" Moutai, and there are many high-quality imitations on the market at present. Because the packaging materials are all true, it is difficult to confirm the authenticity through Maotai’s secret record, and the identification standard is also vague.
The market is waiting for the "three fires" of Maotai’s new coach
After Zhang Deqin, the new "top leader" of Maotai, came to power, the industry thought that the most urgent task was: first, whether the price of wine could be maintained; The second is to strike a balance, including the balance between direct sales and traditional dealer channels, and the balance between supply and demand.
Regarding the matter of price stability, Ouyang Qianli said that for Zhang Deqin, the core is to make dealers profitable. For example, when distributing goods to dealers, Feitian Maotai should be the main product, supplemented by other products; In addition, comb the product structure and cut down the products that are detrimental to the brand power; Strive to improve the bottle opening rate, adjust the health of social inventory, and so on.
How to balance the direct marketing and dealer channels, boost the confidence of dealers and repair the relationship with them is another big challenge for Zhang Deqin.
There is such a voice in the market that traditional channel dealers have made great contributions to helping Maotai obtain today’s public awareness and price expectations. Under the background that the proportion of Maotai’s direct sales has exceeded 40%, manufacturers need to balance the interests of direct sales and traditional dealer channels to ensure the harmonious coexistence of both parties.
Some insiders pointed out that Zhang Deqin, who grew up at the grassroots level in Maotai, knows both technology and market, works pragmatically, dares to be responsible, and is very human to employees and distributors. This time, Zhang Deqin was transferred to take charge of the overall situation, which will play an important role in stabilizing the confidence of investors and Moutai upstream and downstream industrial chain partners, especially in stabilizing the market price of Moutai.
In fact, since Zhang Deqin took office on April 29, he has made many public speeches focusing on Maotai’s dealer strategy. He said at the Zhejiang-Fujian-Su Sansheng Dealer Symposium on May 10: "Dealers are Maotai’s family, and we will continue to respect and safeguard their interests."
However, when Jiu Zhouzhi visited the market, he noticed that the dealers were not optimistic that Zhang Deqin could alleviate the current situation of Maotai’s price drop in a short period of time, but interestingly, they were still optimistic about the long-term development of Maotai. "After all, in the current era of liquor stock, the market is weak, and Maotai is the only brand that can make money at present." The owner of a Maotai sauce-flavored Wanjia shared store said.
In addition, with the "fixed file" of Kweichow Moutai shareholders’ meeting after May 29th, all parties, including shareholders, distributors and scalpers, are paying attention to what new signals will be released by this shareholders’ meeting. It is worth mentioning that at present, Maotai International Hotel has become "hard to find a room", and most of the rooms on May 28th and 29th have been sold out, leaving only a luxury villa of 8998 yuan a night.
However, the above-mentioned staff of Kweichow Moutai said that (whether the new head will introduce new policies and other issues) is not the scope of discussion at the shareholders’ meeting. "This is at the operational level and belongs to the board of directors."
What kind of answer sheet will Zhang Deqin’s "first show" hand over? What new changes and breakthroughs will Kweichow Moutai usher in? All parties are looking forward to how to burn their "three fires". After all, the current liquor market needs a shot in the arm.
