[Looking at the world] The pace of raising interest rates is difficult to stop, and the possibility of a ＂hard landing＂ in the US economy is increasing.

　　China Daily Online, September 22 (Xinhua) On September 21, local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to between 3% and 3.25%. This is the fifth time the Fed has raised interest rates this year, and it is also the third time in a row that it has raised interest rates by 75 basis points.

On September 21st, 2022, in Washington, USA, after the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference that in order to bring the inflation rate back to 2% and keep it stable, he would strive to raise interest rates and keep them at a high level until the inflation rate dropped. (Source: Oriental IC)

　　Due to the previously released US CPI data in August exceeding expectations, the outside world has already been "waiting" for this interest rate hike. However, while the Fed keeps raising interest rates, many people have doubts about whether the US economy can achieve the "soft landing" envisaged by the Fed.

　　An article published by the Associated Press on the 19th local time said that although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other officials have stated that the Fed’s goal is to achieve a so-called "soft landing", that is, to curb inflation by slowing down the pace of economic growth appropriately, and not to trigger a recession. However, the August CPI data released last week showed that such a goal has become increasingly difficult to achieve.

　　According to the report, the data shows that the CPI of the United States rose by 8.3% year-on-year in August, and to make matters worse, core inflation, that is, the price index after excluding changes in food and energy prices, rose much faster than expected. From the inflation report, it can be seen that the current inflation problem has penetrated into all aspects of the American economy, making the inflation situation that the Fed has to fight more and more complicated.

On August 1, 2022, local time, in Washington, D.C., consumers made purchases in a store. (Source: Oriental IC)

　　"They (the Federal Reserve) are trying to make the economy ‘ Soft landing ’ The problem is that there is no room to achieve this now. " William Dudley, former chairman of the new york Fed, said.

　　"The American economy will go to ‘ Hard landing ’ 。” Kathy bost Jancic, an economist at Oxford Economic Research Institute, also said.

On September 13th, 2022, local time in new york, USA, the three major US stock indexes experienced the biggest decline since June 11th, 2020, due to factors such as falling inflation data less than expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy or continuing to tighten sharply. (Source: Oriental IC)

　　According to the report, many economists believe that only when the US economy goes into recession and large-scale layoffs occur in the labor market will it be possible to slow down the price increase.

　　According to Reuters, earlier this month, a research report published at the Brookings Institution Conference predicted that in order to achieve the Fed’s goal of controlling inflation at 2%, the unemployment rate in the United States would soar to around 7.5%, twice the current level, which would mean another 6 million Americans would lose their jobs.

　　It is reported that this report was written by Lawrence Bauer, a professor at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, and two economists of the International Monetary Fund, Daniel Lee and Placci Mishra. They believe that only such a violent economic downturn can curb wage increases and consumer spending and let inflation "cool down".

　　"If the labor market does not perform well, or (inflation) is expected to perform poorly, the small increase in unemployment rate predicted by the Federal Reserve will not be enough. Either the inflation rate continues to rise sharply, or we will face an increase in unemployment and a sharp slowdown in the economy. " Lawrence Bauer wrote in the summary of the report.

　　Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that he did not know the probability of a recession in the United States. If we want to deal with the problem of high inflation in the United States, we must bear the "pain". Reuters reported that in order to curb the worst inflation in the United States since 1980s, how deep the "pain" the American economy will bear, and this report is also a heated discussion.

　　(Editor: Tu Tian, Cao Jing, Li Haipeng)